Fishmeal, the Peruvian anchovy and China's distant-water fleet

The Peruvian anchovy (anchoveta) is described by FAO as the primary global source of fishmeal and fish oil, and Peru accounts for about 20% of world output in a normal year (IFFO). The lock: this protein input for aquaculture and livestock rests on a single species in a single upwelling, highly sensitive to El Niño; in 2023 world fishmeal production fell about 23% after poor Peruvian catches (FAO). Downstream, China dominates demand and deploys by far the largest distant-water fishing fleet, put at nearly 17,000 vessels by ODI in 2020, well above the ~2,600 officially declared, adding heavy pressure and opacity on the resource.