Cross-section Fertilizers & Food, Antifragile

View on the map →IF method →Read from surface (top) to matter (bottom). Hover a node to reveal what it depends on.

0Plates & food security2

●Cocoa grinding, Netherlands & Barry Callebaut

Barry Callebaut, Cargill & Olam ≈55-60% of world grinding; Netherlands top cocoa importer/port

Critical node· Barry Callebaut

■Wheat, Egypt (GASC, Cairo)

World's largest wheat importer; ≈82% of imports from Russia + Ukraine (2017-2021)

Dependency· GASC (Cairo)

−IHarvests & global trading54

■Black Sea grain, Odesa (Ukraine)

≈30% of global wheat exports (Ukraine + Russia); 32.9 Mt shipped 2022-2023

Critical node· Ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, Pivdennyi↑ ABCD trading, Egypt wheat

■Rice, India (export policies)

≈33-40% of global rice exports; non-basmati ban July 2023 – Sept. 2024

Critical node· Indian government / DGFT (New Delhi)↑ ABCD trading

■Palm oil, Dumai / Riau (Indonesia)

Indonesia + Malaysia: ≈85% of world production (Indonesia ≈60%)

Critical node· Wilmar International (Singapore)↑ ABCD trading

●ABCD traders, Cargill, Minneapolis

≈60% of global grain and oilseed volumes traded (540 Mt in 2022)

Critical node· Cargill (Minneapolis)↑ Egypt wheat

■Soybean, Mato Grosso (Brazil)

Brazil leading world exporter (≈105 Mt, 2024/25); Mato Grosso ≈28% of the harvest

Critical node· Mato Grosso growers↑ ABCD trading

■Soybean complex, Gran Rosario (Argentina)

Leading world exporter of meal (≈29 Mt) and soybean oil (≈42% of trade)

Critical node· Cargill, Bunge, Dreyfus, COFCO (Santa Fe plants)↑ ABCD trading

■Cocoa, Côte d'Ivoire

≈45% of world cocoa; leading producer; with Ghana ≈60% of world supply

Critical node· Conseil du Café-Cacao (Abidjan)

■Cocoa, Ghana

2nd world producer; 2023/24 harvest nearly halved

Critical node· Cocobod (Accra)

■Coffee, Brazil & Vietnam

Brazil ≈37% + Vietnam ≈17-18% ≈ more than half of world coffee (2024/25)

Critical node· Brazilian cooperatives (Minas Gerais)

■Russian wheat, Black Sea

~24% of world wheat exports (2023/24)

Critical node· exporters via Novorossiysk↑ Egypt wheat, Black Sea corridor, ABCD trading

■Farmed salmon, Norway

≈50% of the world's farmed Atlantic salmon; ≈1.2 Mt exported in 2023

Critical node· Mowi (Bergen)↑ ABCD trading

■Almonds, California

California ~80% of the world's almonds

Critical node· Blue Diamond

■Sunflower oil, Ukraine & Russia

Ukraine + Russia ~half of production and most of world sunflower-oil exports

Critical node· Kernel

■Robusta coffee, Vietnam

Vietnam #1 robusta producer (~40% of global output)

Critical node· Central Highlands growers

■Rice, India (world exports)

India ~40% of world rice exports, top exporter

Critical node· Punjab & Bengal growers

■Gum arabic, Sudan (Sahel belt)

Sudan majority of world gum arabic (~70-80%)

Critical node· Sudanese gatherers

■Orange juice, Brazil (Sao Paulo)

Brazil ~70% of the world's exported concentrated orange juice

Critical node· Cutrale

■Vanilla, Madagascar (Sava)

Madagascar #1 vanilla producer (~40% of volume, FAOSTAT 2023)

Critical node· Sava growers

●Brazilian beef and JBS, the animal-protein colossus

~20% of world beef exports (2023); JBS, the largest meat processor, US$72.9 billion net revenue (2023)

Critical node· JBS

●New Zealand milk and Fonterra

New Zealand ≈world's leading dairy exporter; Fonterra ≈30% of global dairy trade (FAO 2023)

Critical node· Fonterra

■Chinese pork, heart of food security

China ≈48% of world pork production (USDA 2023)

Critical node· Muyuan Foods

■World chicken, cheap protein

Brazil ≈35% and United States ≈2nd of world chicken exports (USDA 2023)

Critical node· JBS / Seara

■Tea, China and India

China ≈43% and India ≈20% of world tea production (FAO 2023)

Critical node· China Tea (COFCO)

■Ecuador bananas, the most-exported fruit

Ecuador ≈world's leading banana exporter, ≈¼ of exports (FAO 2023)

Critical node· Reybanpac

■Chinese tobacco and the CNTC monopoly

China ≈⅓ of world tobacco; CNTC ≈97% of the domestic market, state monopoly (FAO 2023)

Critical node· China National Tobacco Corporation (CNTC)

■Spanish olive oil, Andalusia

Spain ≈45 to 50% of world olive oil (IOC 2023)

Critical node· Deoleo

■Corn, Corn Belt (United States)

≈377 Mt of corn in 2024/25, ≈31% of world production; world's largest exporter

Critical node· Iowa and Illinois (core of the Corn Belt)

■Sugar, Brazil (Center-South)

≈34 Mt exported, ≈54% of world sugar exports (2025/26)

Critical node· Raízen (Cosan / Shell)

■Cotton, the global belt

China ≈29%, India ≈19%, Brazil ≈16%, US ≈11% of production (2025/26)

Critical node· China (Xinjiang)

■Garlic, China (Jinxiang)

China ~70-80% of world garlic; Jinxiang, the garlic capital

Dependency· Shandong growers

■Processing tomatoes (China, California, Italy)

China, California & Italy = top three processing-tomato regions (~55% of world crush)

Dependency· COFCO Tunhe

■Black pepper, Vietnam

Vietnam >1/3 (~35-40%) of world black pepper, top producer and exporter

Dependency· Central Highlands growers

■Cashew, Ivory Coast

Côte d'Ivoire top world producer of raw cashew nuts (~1.04 Mt, 2023)

Dependency· Ivorian growers

■Avocado, Michoacan (Mexico)

Mexico top producer (~28% of world, 2023) and top avocado exporter

Dependency· Michoacan growers

■Canola, Canada

World's #1 canola/rapeseed exporter (~35% of global export value, 2023-24)

Dependency· Richardson

■Sugar, India (Uttar Pradesh)

World's #1 or #2 sugar producer (2nd behind Brazil in 2023/24)

Dependency· Uttar Pradesh & Maharashtra growers

■Groundnut, China & India

World's #1 groundnut/peanut producer (~35% of output, 2023)

Dependency· Chinese & Indian growers

■Onion, India (Nashik)

Major world onion exporter (top 3) and #1 producer

Dependency· Maharashtra growers

■Apple, China (Shaanxi)

~½ of world apples (49.6%, 47.6 Mt in 2022)

Dependency· Shaanxi & Shandong growers

■Coconut oil, Philippines

Philippines & Indonesia core of world coconut oil (top exporters)

Dependency· Philippine growers

■Jute, Bangladesh & India

Bangladesh & India ~90% of world jute

Dependency· Bangladeshi & Indian growers

■Honey, China

China #1 honey producer and exporter

Dependency· Chinese producers

■Hops (US & Germany)

USA + Germany ~71% of world hop acreage and ~75% of crop volume

Dependency· Yakima growers

■Sorghum (US & Africa)

USA #1 sorghum exporter (>60% of world exports), China top destination

Dependency· Kansas growers

■Lentils & peas, Canada

Canada #1 exporter of lentils (~36% of value) and dry peas

Dependency· Saskatchewan growers

■Dates, Egypt & Middle East

Top 3 date producers: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Algeria (Iran 4th)

Dependency· Egyptian & Saudi growers

●Kiwifruit, New Zealand (Zespri)

Zespri manages ~30% of global kiwifruit trade (China top producer, ~55%)

Dependency· Zespri

■Wine, France, Italy & Spain

France + Italy + Spain ~½ of world wine production

Dependency· French, Italian, Spanish winegrowers

■Potato, China

China ~1/4 of world potato production

Dependency· Chinese producers

■Cassava, Nigeria & Thailand

Nigeria world's top cassava producer; Thailand top exporter (starch)

Dependency· Nigeria

■Merino wool, Australia

Australia #1 producer of fine merino wool (~80%)

Dependency· Australian growers

■Farmed shrimp, Ecuador & India

Ecuador (#1) and India (#2) top farmed shrimp exporters

Dependency· Ecuadorian producers

■Cut flowers, Kenya (Naivasha)

Kenya #1 African rose exporter; ~38-40% of EU cut-flower imports

Dependency· Naivasha growers

■Fishmeal, the Peruvian anchovy and China's distant-water fleet

Peru supplies ~20% of world fishmeal and fish oil in a normal year; China's distant-water fleet numbers ~17,000 vessels (ODI, 2020)

Dependency· TASA (Tecnológica de Alimentos, Peru's top fishmeal producer)

−IIAgricultural inputs, seeds & additives3

●Bayer Crop Science, Monheim (Germany)

≈56% of the global seed market across 4 groups; Bayer alone ≈23%

Critical node· Bayer Crop Science (Monheim)↑ Black Sea corridor, India rice

●Vitamins & additives, Zhejiang (China)

≈80% of global vitamin production; >80% for B1, B6, B9, B12, C, biotin

Critical node· Zhejiang NHU (Shaoxing)↑ ABCD trading

●Seeds, Corteva & Bayer

Bayer, Corteva, Syngenta ~½ of world seed and pesticide market

Critical node· Bayer

−IIIChemical transformation, ammonia & fertilizers4

●Yara Sluiskil, Netherlands

Yara Europe cut to 35% of capacity in August 2022; ≈70% of EU capacity idled at peak

Dependency· Yara International (Oslo)↑ Egypt wheat, Black Sea corridor

■Urea, China (export controls)

Urea exports −83% in 2024 after the freeze decided in late 2023

Dependency· NDRC (Beijing)↑ India rice

■Ready-made garments, Bangladesh (RMG)

2nd global garment exporter; ≈6.9% of the market ($38.5bn, 2024)

Dependency· BGMEA (Dhaka)

●CF Industries, Donaldsonville (Louisiana)

World's largest ammonia complex: 6 ammonia units, 5 urea units

Redundancy· CF Industries (Northbrook)↑ Europe ammonia

−IVDeposits & natural gas4

●Belaruskali, Soligorsk

≈17-20% of the world market before sanctions; production −60% in 2022

Critical node· Belaruskali (Soligorsk)↑ India rice

▲OCP, Khouribga (Morocco)

≈68-70% of the world's phosphate rock reserves (USGS)

Critical node· OCP Group (Casablanca)↑ India rice, Black Sea corridor

●Russian potash and fertilizer, Urals

Russia and Belarus ~40% of world potash; Russia top nitrogen fertilizer exporter

Dependency· Uralkali↑ Palm oil, India rice

●Saskatchewan potash, Nutrien

Canada ~31% of world potash production (2023)

Redundancy· Nutrien↑ India rice, ABCD trading